It seems that the tech blogs have a been following a current theme the past couple days around Facebook being the next _____.
- Dave calls Facebook the Next Visual Basic.
- Similarly, Arrington calls Facebook the Next Microsoft.
- Lastly, Kottke calls Facebook the Next AOL .
With Facebook’s recent purchase of WebOS Parakey, it’s hard not to think this way.
I do cringe at the comparison of a web social network to a software conglomerat. Web vs Desktop. Ick.
But if I were to follow this analogy, I hope Facebook does NOT become the next Microsoft. If anything, my wish is that Facebook becomes the new LAMP.
Let me explain. Facebook has a huge following. You’ve read the stories and probably even know the numbers. They’re making an interesting play buying Parakey (I’m claiming ignorance behind the details of what they do). So they’ve got a huge userbase and a WebOS in their hands.
Kottke rightly compares Facebook to AOL in that they are a closed system. Dave rightly compares Facebook to Visual Basic in that they platform is a way to launch them into becoming more and more ubiquitous across the web. Putting all these thoughts together, I can’t help but feel that the danger of Facebook becoming the next Microsoft is that they are seeking dominance through a closed system.
I hope that does not happen. And if it does, it’s the beginning of the end (well.. perhaps I’m getting ahead of myself here).
But then there’s LAMP. I’m not an open-source zealot but when you take a step back you really see where LAMP and open source have taken us. We are sitting in this web renaissance (Dave’s term) because of open source and LAMP. Like many before me have said, we’ve lowered the cost of starting a company so much that your average engineer can start his own company with very little cash.
Facebook is creating incredible value behind the social graph that they maintain. It knows everything about the people I know and the types of relationships I maintain with them. Their platform is at a very nascent stage and needs deeper integration (I’ve been developing some Facebook Apps of my own). But if they leverage this WebOS and everything is closed, then it’s all for naught. In 10 years they will be holding dominance but innovation will be dead. And then we’ll be talking about the next “Facebook.”
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Kieron Murphy | 20-Jul-07 at 12:33 pm | Permalink
You can find more info on Blake Ross and Parakey at IEEE Spectrum in the article “The Firefox Kid” (http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/nov06/4696) from last November. Interestingly, Mark Zuckerberg of FaceBook is a good friend of Ross’s. Synergy at work!
Lisa | 25-Jul-07 at 8:22 pm | Permalink
A very insightful post.
The last paragraph. I have a point in my head that I just can’t articulate just now.
(ok here goes…)
Maybe we’re going through some sort of an evolution. We had Friendster..then MySpace…and with the developer platform all of a sudden Facebook looks like it’s going to dominate. (I don’t know where LinkedIn fits here). But then maybe Facebook got it just right…and then maybe it will be that way for a while and there won’t be any innovation like you said…but then one could also say that period of lull is just because users are content for a while…and then when we reach the point of discontent again maybe something else will come along…the next Facebook.
I guess the bigger question then would be how long that period of contentment will last.
Kinda says something about the term “revolutionary.” It really isn’t “revolutionary” if everything else around you is going through it. You can cause a ripple only when the water is calm.
I don’t think any of that made any sense.