R e – P e t e

Party like it’s 1996

Most of you probably know by now that I’ve been following this election like peanut butter on top of a kids mouth. I can’t help it. There are just so many compelling events going on. Rarely does one recognize that they are watching history unravel before their eyes.

To use a tired cliche, this election is definitely like no other. However, to amuse myself, I do look to recent history as a gauge of the outcome of this presidential election will look like.

I’ve been a big fan of pollster.com which takes all the polls out there and comes up with some sort of aggregated poll of its own (I’m guessing it simply just takes the average). Pollster currently shows 311 electoral votes either solid or leaning Democrat with 142 electoral votes solid or leaning Republican. It shows 85 electoral votes belonging to toss-up states.

A presidential nominee only need 270 electoral votes to win.

Should we celebrate already? Probably not. There are too many unknowns. But I’d like to take a stab at how I think the electoral votes will play out based purely on wild guesses and the result of the ‘96 election.

I chose the ‘96 election (Clinton 1st term vs Bush) because the map is looking very similar to what it was back then. Here are the results of the ‘96 election:

And here’s the current standings for the ‘08 election:

It’s worth taking a look at the overlapping swing states in that election and this election.

My guess is that Obama will not win Louisiana or Arkansas. Clinton had an edge there considering that he was from Arkansas and Louisiana is a bordering state. Missouri has only become a toss-up state recently so I’ll give that to McCain.

Clinton lost Virginia by about 4 points but Obama holds a striking lead of 8%. North Carolina will come down to the wire. In ‘96, it went red by 0.8% and Obama holds a 3% lead here which is basically within statistical error. I’ll give that to Obama because I think his grass-roots early-voting efforts will pay off. But, even if he does win it, we’re talking very slim margins.

Georgia seems very murky. It went blue in ‘96 and the race is very close now. Obama or Biden haven’t been campaigning heavily here. I’ll give Georgia to McCain because it’s part of the South. Florida has a good chance at going blue (it went red in ‘96) but Florida is.. well it’s Florida. Even though Florida is in the South, it’s seems to act differently. I’ll give it to Obama but, again, razor-thin margins.

Indiana looks like it may go red. But the good news for Obama is that Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and even Montana look like they will go blue like in ‘96.

So what’s that come out to? Obama 356 to McCain’s 182. Clinton won 370 to Bush’s 168.

There are several things to note. While this outcome would look like a landslide win for Obama, the electoral votes belie how close this election will be. Obama could lose Florida and North Carolina and even Ohio. McCain’s also been campaigning heavily in Penn. If he took those 4 states, he would have 265 votes, which still wouldn’t be enough but means that he would just need 1 of the smaller southwestern states to go his way to win.

All in all, the two races aren’t the same but the political map does look similar. Let’s hope that the Dems can take back the White House.

Wedding Slideshow

Wedding Reflections

Early in our engagement, Emily and I often joked about eloping. We would poke fun at going to Vegas or we would imagine what it would be like to be off on some pacific island with water as clear as glass and the whitest sand ever seen. Wedding? This wasn’t for us, this was for everyone else. We already knew we loved each other.

In my college/early 20s, I’ve had that conversation with people who think that the wedding is an invention of the christian church. Or they think that it’s simply a western custom that’s perpetuated and not necessary. These people who say that being devoted to each other and not married is just as good.

I’m not here to say it isn’t. I wouldn’t make such a bold refutation. But I would have to disagree.

As many of you know, Em and I have been together for 7 years (pushing 8). I’ve joked that we’ve practically been married for quite a while now. It’s hard not to feel that way since we lived together (in some form or another) for some time. We do everything together and spend most of our waking moments together (if you don’t include work). We’ve taken many trips together, cooked many meals together and have had our fair share of fights and laughs.

But I realize, now, how wrong I was. This weekend wasn’t just for everyone else. This weekend was truly for us.

As cliche as it sounds, it really was worth it. It was more than worth it; it was the best day of my life (also cliche, but oh so true). I definitely have more grey hairs because of this process and it seemed grueling at times. Torture, some might say. And, in some ways, it was just planning a big party.

But when I found myself up there with Emily, and in the witness of people who mean the most to us on this Earth, in our lives, I could not help but feel that this was for us.

When you begin to date someone, there is no real public declaration, there are no promises, and few around you benefit from the light and joy. In time, this slowly changes. You’re expected to always be in the presence of your other half, and you expect things from each other and friend groups are brought together.

The wedding was special to me because it was the culmination of those experiences. In the presence of people who’ve touched our lives the most, we declared our devotions to each other. We grasped hands in the journey of marriage, promising never to let go or look back. We asked everyone to support us in this journey.

So here we go!

Jon Stewart’s Take on Obama Clinching Nomination

Jon Stewart has me crying-laughing!

Korean DJ Wunderkinds